(538) How Japanese Housewives Outsmarted Global Finance (Documentary) - YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKVUD-Se7c8

Transcript:

(00:00) 1 luglio 1999 il mondo è in fermento per il Nuovo Millennio, la bolla di.com si sta avvicinando al suo apice e l'euro era appena stato introdotto, ma in Giappone stava iniziando a verificarsi una rivoluzione silenziosa, una rivoluzione che avrebbe cambiato il panorama della finanza globale in modi inaspettati. si poteva prevedere che avesse guadagnato milioni di dollari scambiando valute nelle case di tutto il paese un gruppo di normali casalinghe in Giappone iniziò ad avventurarsi in un mondo governato dai magnati di Wall Street e dai giganti bancari internazionali

(00:31) noi le chiamiamo Mrs Watanabe questo è motivato dal desiderio di proteggere le loro famiglie armate solo di personal computer e da una determinazione incrollabile le Mrs Watanabe hanno scosso per sempre i mercati finanziari globali dai loro tavoli da cucina immagina se potessimo tornare indietro nel tempo al Alla fine degli anni '80 l'economia del Giappone era in forte espansione, la sua economia era così forte da essere seconda solo a quella dei colossali Stati Uniti, ciò era particolarmente vero nel mondo del settore immobiliare e del mercato azionario, dove i prezzi erano alle stelle, ma come dice il proverbio, ciò che sale deve

(01:22) crollò quando gli anni '90 scoppiarono nella bolla economica del Giappone, scoppiò il settore immobiliare del paese e i mercati azionari crollarono spazzando via trilioni di yen di ricchezza quasi da un giorno all'altro improvvisamente la potenza economica fu messa in ginocchio e questa crisi segnò l'inizio di quello che oggi è conosciuto come il Giappone perso un decennio nel tentativo di rimettere in carreggiata l'economia la banca del Giappone ha deciso di abbassare i tassi di interesse i tassi di interesse sono il prezzo da pagare per prendere in prestito denaro quando sono alti costa molto prendere in prestito quindi

(01:55) le persone e le aziende decidono di risparmiare i propri soldi, invece, quando sono a corto di soldi è più economico prendere prestiti, incoraggiando le persone nelle imprese a spendere e stimolare l'economia, ma anche con questi bassi tassi di interesse l'economia giapponese era ancora in difficoltà e le persone normali non ottenevano molto rendimento sui loro risparmi nelle banche giapponesi è stato durante questi tempi difficili che qualcosa di inaspettato ha cominciato ad accadere a Tokyo, una città che non dorme mai, una forza sorprendente era in aumento non negli uffici eleganti pieni di uomini d'affari

(02:24) but in the homes of Ordinary People Mrs Watanabe but who exactly is Mrs Watanabe well she doesn't really exist not as a single person at least in Japan Mrs Watanabe is like John Doe or Average Joe in English it's the fifth most common surname in Japan and is used to represent an everyday person in this case the average Japanese housewife women are in charge of household finances in Japanese Society so they notice the low growth of their Savings in Japanese Banks looking for better options they started to

(02:57) explore Beyond Japan their search Led them to the fast-paced world of foreign exchange or Forex Trading where they could trade different currencies and potentially make a profit over a million of these women began speculating in financial markets to increase their family savings leading to the emergence of the Mrs Watanabe movement but little did they know what would happen next now imagine you're a Japanese housewife you're in charge of the household finances and you've got money to invest but when you look around there are no

(03:34) attractive options at home the interest rates are so low that leaving your money in a savings account feels like letting it gather dust it's not getting your savings anywhere this is where Mrs Watanabe found herself her savings were growing too slowly in Japan's Banks so she decided to do something Innovative she thought why not borrow money here in Japan where it's cheap then lend it out in a country where I can get higher interest this idea is what we call the carry trade and that's precisely what Mrs

(04:06) Watanabe did in a carry trade you borrow money in a currency with a low interest rate like the Yen then use that money to invest in a different currency that offers a higher interest rate like the Australian dollar you get to pocket the difference of the interest you get from your deposit in the foreign Bank imagine living in a country where fruits are currency for every 100 apples you deposit in the Apple City Bank they reward you with one extra Apple each year but then you spot that the Orange City Bank gives out five extra oranges

(04:37) annually for every 100 oranges deposited so you decide to swap your apples for oranges pocketing those extra oranges each year so she borrowed Japanese Yen at low interest and changed them into a currency where the interest was high so she could earn more the difference in interest rates was her profit and just like that Mrs Watanabe found herself at the center of a financial Revolution right from her kitchen table this marked the birth of the Mrs Watanabe carry trade phenomenon a Savvy Financial maneuver that would soon

(05:07) attract Global attention foreign has been living the good life with the money from the carry trade and this wasn't just a few people the word spread and soon after thousands of Mrs Watanabe across Japan were doing the same thing the carry trade was the hottest ticket in town and it seemed like these good times would never end [Music] according to the financial times more than half of Japanese household assets are cash and Bank deposits this is unusually high since cash only represents 14 percent of Americans

(05:59) household assets and 37 percent of Europeans but there's no such thing as zero risk profits just like the highest swing in the playground can give you the best ride it can also be the scariest when things go wrong [Music] in 1998 a storm hit the Global Financial Market a storm called the Russian financial crisis Russia defaulted on its debts and created a massive earthquake for the entire Global Financial system remember the carry trade well here's the downside of it if the Yen's value Rises against

(06:34) the currency Mrs Watanabe has put her money into repaying the borrowed Yen would lead to losses and to the Chagrin of Mrs Watanabe that's precisely what happened when the Russian financial crisis hit investors got scared they rushed to pull their money out of risky Investments and put it in safer places one of those safer places was the Japanese Yen as more and more people bought Yen its value went up her winning lottery ticket turned into a ticking time bomb as the Yen surged in value it was more expensive for her to

(07:07) repay what she had borrowed the Russian crisis turned the tables she suddenly was in the eye of the storm and her plans for healthy returns were Swept Away by the unexpected surge in the Yen's value the gap between interest rates shrank the Russian financial crisis was a chilling reminder that even the best strategies can falter it was a wake-up call for Mrs Watanabe and all the other carry Traders out there reminding them that their business was not at all risk-free in the aftermath of the Russian financial crisis Mrs Watanabe and others

(07:47) involved in the carry trade were left licking their wounds meanwhile back in Japan the government was dealing with its own economic challenges even after being the world's first country to introduce a zero interest rate policy in April 1999. Japan was still facing a new monster deflation deflation is when the overall level of prices in an economy decreases incentivizing people not to spend their money by delaying their purchases because they expect prices to fall further in response to this in 2001 the bank of Japan decided to take

(08:18) another bold step to fight this deflation it became the first country ever to introduce a policy known as quantitative easing or QE for short this practice has since been adopted by other central banks worldwide particularly during the 2008 financial crisis and more recently during the pandemic in simple terms QE is when a central bank like the bank of Japan creates new money and uses it to buy government bonds or a title where the government promises to pay back the borrowed money at a certain time and with a certain interest rate that are

(08:51) both fixed during the creation of the bond this floods the economy with money lowers interest rates even further and encourages people and businesses to borrow and spend it's like adding fuel to a fire to make it burn brighter for Mrs Watanabe this was a double-edged sword on one hand the even lower interest rates in Japan meant that the potential profits from the carry trade were higher and on the other hand the risks associated with the carry trade were still fresh in her mind the introduction of quantitative easing was

(09:22) a defining moment in Japan's economic history it represented a significant shift in the Bank of Japan's approach to managing the economy and for our Mrs Watanabe it was yet another twist in her financial Journey as we enter the New Millennium Japan is still working hard to fix its economic problems yet even with all the risks the carry trade was still attractive to many Japanese retail investors the potential for more profits is too hard to ignore especially now that the yen is cheaper to borrow thanks to the bank of Japan's

(10:02) quantitative easing policy around 2005 a significant number of Japanese housewives ventured into online currency trading and the term Mrs Watanabe started to become really popular around the world the typical Mrs Watanabe was in her mid-30s computer savvy known in Japan as clickety-clicks and often traded foreign exchange markets using her own money Family Savings or borrowed cash via margin accounts many of them began with Forex Trading because the transactions were easy for a beginner investor to understand at that time the media was

(10:34) filled with stories about the so-called Real Housewives of Japan the New York Times interviewed a number of middle-class Japanese Homemakers who Moonlight as amateur currency speculators in their 2007 story The Times went on to explain tens of thousands of married Japanese women ventured into online currency trading in the last year and a half playing the markets between household chores or after tucking the children into bed while the overwhelmingly male world of Traders and investors here mocked them as kimono clad Mrs watanabes these women

(11:06) collectively emerged as a powerful force using Japan's vast wealth to sway prices and confound economists to the point where their carry trade strategy caught the attention of way bigger fish hedge funds and Banks entered the game when they understood the process borrowing from countries with low exchange rates and investing in countries with high exchange rates especially the Australian and U.

(11:30) S dollar this strategy has remained profitable despite academic literature that should have arbitrated away this free lunch as time went by many new actors entered the market so many in fact that it started to get Global attention the attention was not all positive though some Financial experts warned of the risks the Mrs watanabes were taking they worried about what would happen if another financial crisis caused a rapid unwinding of carry trades just like what happened during the Russian financial crisis for that reason in 2006 the bank of

(12:02) Japan voted the end of quantitative easing and began to move away from its zero interest rate policy increasing interest rates slowly this shift to reduces the appeal of the Yen carry trade as the cost of borrowing in Yen would increase the goal was to make the Yen rise and the carry trade less attractive and riskier a rising Yen would make it more expensive to pay back these loans at the same time that the yield differential or potential profit would narrow if Japanese rates rise which lead Dennis gartman editor and

(12:35) publisher of the gartman letter of virginia-based investment advisory service at that time to say the unwinding of such enormous positions shall either be done slowly and over a great deal of time and likely in tears or it shall be done swiftly massively and accompanied not only by tears but also by a great deal of pain for now however Mrs Watanabe was enjoying her moment in the spotlight her story was an example of how ordinary people using their savings and a bit of risk-taking could make waves in the Global Financial Market but as they

(13:08) would soon find out a huge financial storm way bigger than anything they've experienced so far was starting to form on the horizon 2008 was a tumultuous year for the economy what the heck is going on down here I don't know believe this downturn will be the most severe since the recession of the early 1980s the 2008 financial crisis was bigger than anything Mrs Watanabe had faced before the crisis started in the United States with the collapse of Lehman Brothers a massive Investment Bank as this giant Investment Bank crumbled Global

(13:50) Financial markets spiraled down sinking many economies across the globe into a deep recession just like during the Russian financial crisis worldwide investors shaken by the turmoil scrambled for safety they pulled their money out of risky Investments and rushed to buy safer assets including you guessed it the familiar Japanese Yen again as demand for the Yen Rose its value shot up too for Mrs Watanabe this was a case of deja vu the rising Yen meant paying back her borrowed Yen for carry trades would cost her more in the face of this reality

(14:22) carrytrade started to unravel rapidly the Mrs watanabes in a state of panic rushed to escape their positions and it wasn't just Mrs Watanabe thousands of retail investors across Japan who had once enjoyed the profits of the carry trade found themselves facing significant losses the magic money making machine had turned into a nightmare many amateur Traders suffered huge and sudden losses as they learned that while the transactions may be simple the global macroeconomic forces affecting foreign exchange markets are the complete

(14:54) opposite one woman interviewed by the times lost nearly one hundred thousand dollars her family's entire Savings in just one week the 2008 Global financial crisis was a brutal wake-up call about the risks tied to the carry trade it served as a sobering experience for Mrs Watanabe and her fellow Traders making their time in the Global Spotlight feel like a distant past the crisis also marked a turning point it was the moment when the world truly realized how interconnected our Global Financial system is and how quickly a

(15:29) crisis in one country can spread to others but Mrs Watanabe was not one to be easily deterred despite the losses they continue to trade with many keeping their activities secret due to cultural attitudes towards money earned through Trading she learned from these experiences and instead of retreating she became more knowledgeable and disciplined in her investing strategies in the aftermath of the crisis Japanese retail investors including Mrs Watanabe began reorienting their financial compasses they moved away from carry

(16:11) trades and started to explore new ways to invest their money day trading was one of these new avenues with carry trades Mrs Watanabe was thinking long term but that wasn't the case anymore with day trading she became way more aggressive in her strategy as the New York Times explained one reason Japan's Homemakers can move markets is that they hold the purse strings of the nation's 12.

(16:35) 5 trillion dollars in household savings for more than a decade that money languished in Banks here at low interest rates day trading provided Mrs Watanabe with the opportunity to exercise a level of financial autonomy that was often lacking in traditional work roles leveraging the nation's household savings to move markets and generate more income for her savings was a significant shift from her earlier strategy of carrying trades where she had to wait for profits to roll in several women traders who really put Japanese home trading on the map emerged

(17:05) during this period author of I like stocks and creator of a Nintendo DS investment game who made significant strides in Japanese home trading Yukiko ikibi author of The Secret of FX who found success earning some 4 million dollars trading commodity Futures and currencies over three years and mayumi Tori a single mom who created a support group called the FX Beauties club and also authored a book of the same name Mrs watanabe's shift from carry trading to day trading wasn't an isolated incident it was part of a

(17:38) larger Trend in Japan and in fact around the world day trading was on the rise and Retail investors like Mrs Watanabe were leading the charge how great question well there were a few reasons first the technology needed for day trading had become widely available with a computer and an internet connection anyone could trade from the comfort of their own home second there were new educational resources available online courses webinars and tutorials taught people how to day trade this new chapter in Mrs watanabe's story showed that she was not

(18:11) just a one-trick pony she was a versatile player in the world of Finance day trading had its own set of challenges and risks but it also came with fresh opportunities [Music] fast forward to 2013 and the Japanese economy is at a Crossroads the national debt to GDP ratio is at 230 percent the highest among developed countries for almost two decades now in Japan deflation has been rampant the prices and wages kept dropping to avoid ending up like Europe which is battling serious debt issues Japan needed extreme Solutions

(18:53) in December 2012 Shinzo Abe became Japan's prime minister he launched an ambitious Plan called abonomics which had several strategies but two main ones were one monetary stimulus the bank of Japan was instructed to print more money to stop deflation until inflation hits two percent a rate many economists argue to be optimal a little inflation would stimulate the economy to start spending again and attract more investment 2.

(19:24) fiscal stimulus the government decided to spend as much money as possible on things like schools health care and infrastructure the aim is to create jobs stimulate construction encourage businesses to grow and hopefully boost the economy initially abonomics seemed successful Japan's stock market the Nikkei went up by 30 percent in the first three months of a Bay's mandate in March 2013 the financial times of London wrote welcome back Mrs Watanabe as the effects of abenomics start to trickle down to Consumers and private investors in the

(19:56) world's third largest economy and AS Global recovery hopes brighten this cany player of global currencies and interest rates has begun to stir once more by late May 2013 however the Japanese stock market took a huge tumble and is struggling to recover many blame Mrs Watanabe for cashing out on the quick profits she earned over the past few months while the stock market climbed at that time many Finance people around the world were closely following Mrs watanabe's Behavior does she know something about the stock market or the

(20:27) future of abanomics that the rest of the world doesn't as we mentioned earlier more than half of Japanese household assets are cash and Bank deposits in a deflationary environment it's completely logical for Mrs Watanabe to preserve her cash instead of using it simply because if prices are falling her cash could buy more next week than it could this week so it's best to hang on to it if abenomics works as planned inflation will make prices go up and this might encourage Mrs Watanabe to start spending

(20:55) her saved money she could decide to go shopping which is what Mr Abe hopes for as this would help local businesses and create jobs also if interest rates stay low the chance to earn more returns might draw Mrs Watanabe back to the stock market at that time Japan's economy was bigger than Germany's and Italy's combined so whatever happens in Japan will definitely affect other places that's precisely the reason why so many Financial actors paid close attention to Mrs Watanabe how she manages her money

(21:24) and whether she chooses to spend save or invest will give big hints about what might happen in global markets in the coming months and years the power of the purse has never been more significant fast forward to today Mrs Watanabe has gone through quite a journey she's been a budget manager a carry Trader a day trader and an icon in the financial World she's weathered Financial crises and adapted to changing market conditions in today's Financial landscape Mrs Watanabe remains a force to reckon with the proliferation of

(22:03) le piattaforme digitali e la democratizzazione dei mercati finanziari hanno reso più facile che mai per gli investitori al dettaglio come la signora Watanabe partecipare al day trading: non è più un'attività riservata ai trader professionisti nelle grandi società finanziarie chiunque abbia un computer, una connessione Internet e un po' di conoscenza può essere coinvolta e la signora Watanabe con i suoi anni di esperienza e il suo istinto finanziario è proprio nel bel mezzo della situazione alla fine la storia della signora Watanabe non riguarda solo la finanza, è una questione di resilienza

(22:33) adattabilità e coraggio di correre rischi riguarda la gente comune che ha un impatto straordinario e soprattutto riguarda il modo in cui chiunque, anche un'umile casalinga, che gestisce il proprio budget familiare, può diventare un attore sulla scena finanziaria globale, quindi quale sarà il futuro della signora Watanabe mentre la tecnologia continua ad avanzare stanno emergendo nuovi strumenti e piattaforme che rendono il trading ancora più accessibile con app e piattaforme online il trading sta diventando qualcosa che chiunque può fare ovunque e in qualsiasi momento, allo stesso tempo i mercati stanno diventando più volatili

(23:05) tensioni politiche, incertezze economiche ed eventi globali stanno causando rapide fluttuazioni nei valori valutari ogni giorno. Trader come la signora Watanabe, questa volatilità può essere sia una sfida che un'opportunità e quindi, mentre chiudiamo questo capitolo sul viaggio della signora Watanabe, ci rimane un senso di ammirazione per questa casalinga di tutti i giorni che ha osato avventurarsi nel mondo della finanza globale e così facendo ha cambiato le regole del gioco per sempre, grazie per aver guardato Foreign