- Ottieni link
- X
- Altre app
Come le casalinghe giapponesi hanno superato in astuzia la finanza globale (documentario)
<__slot-el>
1 luglio 1999 il mondo è in fermento per il Nuovo Millennio, la bolla di.com si sta avvicinando al suo apice e l'euro era appena stato introdotto, ma in Giappone stava iniziando a verificarsi una rivoluzione silenziosa, una rivoluzione che avrebbe cambiato il panorama della finanza globale in modi inaspettati. si poteva prevedere che avesse guadagnato milioni di dollari scambiando valute nelle case di tutto il paese un gruppo di normali casalinghe in Giappone iniziò ad avventurarsi in un mondo governato dai magnati di Wall Street e dai giganti bancari internazionali
noi le chiamiamo Mrs Watanabe questo è motivato dal desiderio di proteggere le loro famiglie armate solo di personal computer e da una determinazione incrollabile le Mrs Watanabe hanno scosso per sempre i mercati finanziari globali dai loro tavoli da cucina immagina se potessimo tornare indietro nel tempo al Alla fine degli anni '80 l'economia del Giappone era in forte espansione, la sua economia era così forte da essere seconda solo a quella dei colossali Stati Uniti, ciò era particolarmente vero nel mondo del settore immobiliare e del mercato azionario, dove i prezzi erano alle stelle, ma come dice il proverbio, ciò che sale deve
crollò quando gli anni '90 scoppiarono nella bolla economica del Giappone, scoppiò il settore immobiliare del paese e i mercati azionari crollarono spazzando via trilioni di yen di ricchezza quasi da un giorno all'altro improvvisamente la potenza economica fu messa in ginocchio e questa crisi segnò l'inizio di quello che oggi è conosciuto come il Giappone perso un decennio nel tentativo di rimettere in carreggiata l'economia la banca del Giappone ha deciso di abbassare i tassi di interesse i tassi di interesse sono il prezzo da pagare per prendere in prestito denaro quando sono alti costa molto prendere in prestito quindi
le persone e le aziende decidono di risparmiare i propri soldi, invece, quando sono a corto di soldi è più economico prendere prestiti, incoraggiando le persone nelle imprese a spendere e stimolare l'economia, ma anche con questi bassi tassi di interesse l'economia giapponese era ancora in difficoltà e le persone normali non ottenevano molto rendimento sui loro risparmi nelle banche giapponesi è stato durante questi tempi difficili che qualcosa di inaspettato ha cominciato ad accadere a Tokyo, una città che non dorme mai, una forza sorprendente era in aumento non negli uffici eleganti pieni di uomini d'affari
ma nelle case della gente comune la signora Watanabe ma chi è esattamente la signora Watanabe beh in realtà non esiste non come singola persona almeno in Giappone la signora Watanabe è come John Doe o Average Joe in inglese è il quinto cognome più comune in Giappone ed è usato per rappresentare una persona comune, in questo caso le donne casalinghe giapponesi medie sono responsabili delle finanze domestiche nella società giapponese, quindi notano la bassa crescita dei loro risparmi nelle banche giapponesi e alla ricerca di opzioni migliori hanno iniziato a
esplorare Oltre il Giappone la loro ricerca le ha portate nel frenetico mondo dei cambi o del Forex Trading dove potevano scambiare diverse valute e potenzialmente realizzare un profitto oltre un milione di queste donne hanno iniziato a speculare sui mercati finanziari per aumentare i risparmi familiari portando all'emergere del movimento Mrs Watanabe, ma non sapevano cosa sarebbe successo dopo, ora immagina di essere una casalinga giapponese, di essere responsabile delle finanze domestiche e di avere soldi da investire, ma quando ti guardi intorno non ci sono
opzioni interessanti a casa i tassi di interesse sono così bassi che lasciare i tuoi soldi in un conto di risparmio è come lasciarli prendere polvere non ottieni i tuoi risparmi da nessuna parte è qui che la signora Watanabe si è accorta che i suoi risparmi crescevano troppo lentamente nelle banche giapponesi quindi ha deciso di farlo fare qualcosa di innovativo, pensò, perché non prendere in prestito del denaro qui in Giappone, dove costa poco, e poi prestarlo in un paese dove posso ottenere un interesse più elevato, questa idea è ciò che chiamiamo carry trade ed è esattamente ciò che la signora
Watanabe ha fatto in un carry trade: prendi in prestito denaro in una valuta con un tasso di interesse basso come lo Yen, quindi usi quel denaro per investire in una valuta diversa che offre un tasso di interesse più elevato come il dollaro australiano e puoi intascare la differenza dell'interesse che hai ottenere dal tuo deposito presso la banca estera immagina di vivere in un paese in cui la frutta è la valuta per ogni 100 mele che depositi presso la Apple City Bank ti ricompensano con una mela in più ogni anno ma poi ti accorgi che la Orange City Bank ne distribuisce cinque extra arance
ogni anno per ogni 100 arance depositate, quindi decidi di scambiare le tue mele con arance intascando quelle arance extra ogni anno, così ha preso in prestito yen giapponesi a basso interesse e li ha cambiati in una valuta in cui l'interesse era alto in modo da poter guadagnare di più con la differenza dei tassi di interesse era il suo profitto e proprio così la signora Watanabe si ritrovò al centro di una rivoluzione finanziaria proprio dal tavolo della sua cucina, ciò segnò la nascita del fenomeno del carry trade della signora Watanabe, un'abile manovra finanziaria che presto sarebbe
attirare l'attenzione globale l'estero ha vissuto una bella vita con i soldi del carry trade e non erano solo poche persone a spargersi la voce e subito dopo migliaia di signore Watanabe in tutto il Giappone stavano facendo la stessa cosa il carry trade era il biglietto più interessante in città e sembrava che questi bei tempi non sarebbero mai finiti [Musica] secondo il Financial Times più della metà dei beni delle famiglie giapponesi sono contanti e depositi bancari, questo è insolitamente alto poiché i contanti rappresentano solo il 14% degli americani
patrimonio delle famiglie e del 37% degli europei, ma non esistono profitti a rischio zero proprio come l'altalena più alta del parco giochi può darti la corsa migliore può anche essere la più spaventosa quando le cose vanno male [Musica] nel 1998 una tempesta colpì il mondo Mercato finanziario, una tempesta chiamata crisi finanziaria russa La Russia è andata in default sui suoi debiti e ha creato un enorme terremoto per l'intero sistema finanziario globale, ricordate bene il carry trade, ecco lo svantaggio se il valore dello yen aumenta
la valuta in cui la signora Watanabe ha investito i suoi soldi per ripagare lo yen preso in prestito porterebbe a perdite e con dispiacere della signora Watanabe questo è esattamente quello che è successo quando la crisi finanziaria russa ha colpito gli investitori si sono spaventati e si sono affrettati a ritirare i loro soldi da investimenti rischiosi e a metterli in posti più sicuri uno di quei posti più sicuri era lo Yen giapponese poiché sempre più persone acquistavano Yen il suo valore aumentava il suo biglietto vincente della lotteria si trasformò in una bomba a orologeria mentre lo Yen aumentava di valore era più costoso per lei
ripagare il prestito la crisi russa ha ribaltato la situazione improvvisamente si è trovata nell'occhio del ciclone e i suoi piani per rendimenti sani sono stati spazzati via dall'inaspettata impennata del valore dello yen il divario tra i tassi di interesse si è ridotto la crisi finanziaria russa è stata agghiacciante ricordare che anche le migliori strategie possono vacillare è stato un campanello d'allarme per la signora Watanabe e tutti gli altri carry trader là fuori ricordando loro che la loro attività non era affatto esente da rischi all'indomani della crisi finanziaria russa La signora Watanabe e altri
coinvolti nel carry trade furono lasciati a leccarsi le ferite mentre in Giappone il governo stava affrontando le proprie sfide economiche anche dopo essere stato il primo paese al mondo a introdurre una politica di tasso di interesse pari a zero nell'aprile 1999. Il Giappone stava ancora affrontando una nuova deflazione mostruosa deflazione è quando il livello generale dei prezzi in un'economia diminuisce, incentivando le persone a non spendere i propri soldi ritardando gli acquisti perché si aspettano che i prezzi scendano ulteriormente. In risposta a ciò, nel 2001 la Banca del Giappone ha deciso di prendere
un altro passo coraggioso per combattere questa deflazione è diventato il primo paese in assoluto a introdurre una politica nota come allentamento quantitativo o QE in breve, questa pratica è stata adottata da altre banche centrali in tutto il mondo, in particolare durante la crisi finanziaria del 2008 e più recentemente durante la pandemia in modo semplice termini QE è quando una banca centrale come la Banca del Giappone crea nuovo denaro e lo utilizza per acquistare titoli di stato o un titolo in cui il governo promette di rimborsare il denaro preso in prestito in un determinato momento e con un determinato tasso di interesse che sono
both fixed during the creation of the bond this floods the economy with money lowers interest rates even further and encourages people and businesses to borrow and spend it's like adding fuel to a fire to make it burn brighter for Mrs Watanabe this was a double-edged sword on one hand the even lower interest rates in Japan meant that the potential profits from the carry trade were higher and on the other hand the risks associated with the carry trade were still fresh in her mind the introduction of quantitative easing was
a defining moment in Japan's economic history it represented a significant shift in the Bank of Japan's approach to managing the economy and for our Mrs Watanabe it was yet another twist in her financial Journey as we enter the New Millennium Japan is still working hard to fix its economic problems yet even with all the risks the carry trade was still attractive to many Japanese retail investors the potential for more profits is too hard to ignore especially now that the yen is cheaper to borrow thanks to the bank of Japan's
quantitative easing policy around 2005 a significant number of Japanese housewives ventured into online currency trading and the term Mrs Watanabe started to become really popular around the world the typical Mrs Watanabe was in her mid-30s computer savvy known in Japan as clickety-clicks and often traded foreign exchange markets using her own money Family Savings or borrowed cash via margin accounts many of them began with Forex Trading because the transactions were easy for a beginner investor to understand at that time the media was
filled with stories about the so-called Real Housewives of Japan the New York Times interviewed a number of middle-class Japanese Homemakers who Moonlight as amateur currency speculators in their 2007 story The Times went on to explain tens of thousands of married Japanese women ventured into online currency trading in the last year and a half playing the markets between household chores or after tucking the children into bed while the overwhelmingly male world of Traders and investors here mocked them as kimono clad Mrs watanabes these women
collectively emerged as a powerful force using Japan's vast wealth to sway prices and confound economists to the point where their carry trade strategy caught the attention of way bigger fish hedge funds and Banks entered the game when they understood the process borrowing from countries with low exchange rates and investing in countries with high exchange rates especially the Australian and U.
S dollar this strategy has remained profitable despite academic literature that should have arbitrated away this free lunch as time went by many new actors entered the market so many in fact that it started to get Global attention the attention was not all positive though some Financial experts warned of the risks the Mrs watanabes were taking they worried about what would happen if another financial crisis caused a rapid unwinding of carry trades just like what happened during the Russian financial crisis for that reason in 2006 the bank of
Japan voted the end of quantitative easing and began to move away from its zero interest rate policy increasing interest rates slowly this shift to reduces the appeal of the Yen carry trade as the cost of borrowing in Yen would increase the goal was to make the Yen rise and the carry trade less attractive and riskier a rising Yen would make it more expensive to pay back these loans at the same time that the yield differential or potential profit would narrow if Japanese rates rise which lead Dennis gartman editor and
publisher of the gartman letter of virginia-based investment advisory service at that time to say the unwinding of such enormous positions shall either be done slowly and over a great deal of time and likely in tears or it shall be done swiftly massively and accompanied not only by tears but also by a great deal of pain for now however Mrs Watanabe was enjoying her moment in the spotlight her story was an example of how ordinary people using their savings and a bit of risk-taking could make waves in the Global Financial Market but as they
would soon find out a huge financial storm way bigger than anything they've experienced so far was starting to form on the horizon 2008 was a tumultuous year for the economy what the heck is going on down here I don't know believe this downturn will be the most severe since the recession of the early 1980s the 2008 financial crisis was bigger than anything Mrs Watanabe had faced before the crisis started in the United States with the collapse of Lehman Brothers a massive Investment Bank as this giant Investment Bank crumbled Global
Financial markets spiraled down sinking many economies across the globe into a deep recession just like during the Russian financial crisis worldwide investors shaken by the turmoil scrambled for safety they pulled their money out of risky Investments and rushed to buy safer assets including you guessed it the familiar Japanese Yen again as demand for the Yen Rose its value shot up too for Mrs Watanabe this was a case of deja vu the rising Yen meant paying back her borrowed Yen for carry trades would cost her more in the face of this reality
carrytrade started to unravel rapidly the Mrs watanabes in a state of panic rushed to escape their positions and it wasn't just Mrs Watanabe thousands of retail investors across Japan who had once enjoyed the profits of the carry trade found themselves facing significant losses the magic money making machine had turned into a nightmare many amateur Traders suffered huge and sudden losses as they learned that while the transactions may be simple the global macroeconomic forces affecting foreign exchange markets are the complete
opposite one woman interviewed by the times lost nearly one hundred thousand dollars her family's entire Savings in just one week the 2008 Global financial crisis was a brutal wake-up call about the risks tied to the carry trade it served as a sobering experience for Mrs Watanabe and her fellow Traders making their time in the Global Spotlight feel like a distant past the crisis also marked a turning point it was the moment when the world truly realized how interconnected our Global Financial system is and how quickly a
crisis in one country can spread to others but Mrs Watanabe was not one to be easily deterred despite the losses they continue to trade with many keeping their activities secret due to cultural attitudes towards money earned through Trading she learned from these experiences and instead of retreating she became more knowledgeable and disciplined in her investing strategies in the aftermath of the crisis Japanese retail investors including Mrs Watanabe began reorienting their financial compasses they moved away from carry
trades and started to explore new ways to invest their money day trading was one of these new avenues with carry trades Mrs Watanabe was thinking long term but that wasn't the case anymore with day trading she became way more aggressive in her strategy as the New York Times explained one reason Japan's Homemakers can move markets is that they hold the purse strings of the nation's 12.
5 trillion dollars in household savings for more than a decade that money languished in Banks here at low interest rates day trading provided Mrs Watanabe with the opportunity to exercise a level of financial autonomy that was often lacking in traditional work roles leveraging the nation's household savings to move markets and generate more income for her savings was a significant shift from her earlier strategy of carrying trades where she had to wait for profits to roll in several women traders who really put Japanese home trading on the map emerged
during this period author of I like stocks and creator of a Nintendo DS investment game who made significant strides in Japanese home trading Yukiko ikibi author of The Secret of FX who found success earning some 4 million dollars trading commodity Futures and currencies over three years and mayumi Tori a single mom who created a support group called the FX Beauties club and also authored a book of the same name Mrs watanabe's shift from carry trading to day trading wasn't an isolated incident it was part of a
larger Trend in Japan and in fact around the world day trading was on the rise and Retail investors like Mrs Watanabe were leading the charge how great question well there were a few reasons first the technology needed for day trading had become widely available with a computer and an internet connection anyone could trade from the comfort of their own home second there were new educational resources available online courses webinars and tutorials taught people how to day trade this new chapter in Mrs watanabe's story showed that she was not
just a one-trick pony she was a versatile player in the world of Finance day trading had its own set of challenges and risks but it also came with fresh opportunities [Music] fast forward to 2013 and the Japanese economy is at a Crossroads the national debt to GDP ratio is at 230 percent the highest among developed countries for almost two decades now in Japan deflation has been rampant the prices and wages kept dropping to avoid ending up like Europe which is battling serious debt issues Japan needed extreme Solutions
in December 2012 Shinzo Abe became Japan's prime minister he launched an ambitious Plan called abonomics which had several strategies but two main ones were one monetary stimulus the bank of Japan was instructed to print more money to stop deflation until inflation hits two percent a rate many economists argue to be optimal a little inflation would stimulate the economy to start spending again and attract more investment 2.
fiscal stimulus the government decided to spend as much money as possible on things like schools health care and infrastructure the aim is to create jobs stimulate construction encourage businesses to grow and hopefully boost the economy initially abonomics seemed successful Japan's stock market the Nikkei went up by 30 percent in the first three months of a Bay's mandate in March 2013 the financial times of London wrote welcome back Mrs Watanabe as the effects of abenomics start to trickle down to Consumers and private investors in the
world's third largest economy and AS Global recovery hopes brighten this cany player of global currencies and interest rates has begun to stir once more by late May 2013 however the Japanese stock market took a huge tumble and is struggling to recover many blame Mrs Watanabe for cashing out on the quick profits she earned over the past few months while the stock market climbed at that time many Finance people around the world were closely following Mrs watanabe's Behavior does she know something about the stock market or the
future of abanomics that the rest of the world doesn't as we mentioned earlier more than half of Japanese household assets are cash and Bank deposits in a deflationary environment it's completely logical for Mrs Watanabe to preserve her cash instead of using it simply because if prices are falling her cash could buy more next week than it could this week so it's best to hang on to it if abenomics works as planned inflation will make prices go up and this might encourage Mrs Watanabe to start spending
her saved money she could decide to go shopping which is what Mr Abe hopes for as this would help local businesses and create jobs also if interest rates stay low the chance to earn more returns might draw Mrs Watanabe back to the stock market at that time Japan's economy was bigger than Germany's and Italy's combined so whatever happens in Japan will definitely affect other places that's precisely the reason why so many Financial actors paid close attention to Mrs Watanabe how she manages her money
and whether she chooses to spend save or invest will give big hints about what might happen in global markets in the coming months and years the power of the purse has never been more significant fast forward to today Mrs Watanabe has gone through quite a journey she's been a budget manager a carry Trader a day trader and an icon in the financial World she's weathered Financial crises and adapted to changing market conditions in today's Financial landscape Mrs Watanabe remains a force to reckon with the proliferation of
digital platforms and the democratization of financial markets have made it easier than ever for retail investors like Mrs Watanabe to participate in day trading it's no longer an activity reserved for professional traders in big Financial firms anyone with a computer an internet connection and a bit of knowledge can get involved and Mrs Watanabe with her years of experience and financial instincts is right in the thick of it in the end the story of Mrs Watanabe is about more than just Finance it's about resilience
adaptability and the courage to take risks it's about Ordinary People Making extraordinary impacts and most of all it's about how anyone even a humble housewife managing her family budget can become a player on the Global Financial stage so what's next for Mrs Watanabe as technology continues to advance new tools and platforms are emerging that make trading even more accessible with apps and online platforms trading is becoming something that anyone can do anywhere anytime at the same time markets are becoming more volatile
political tensions economic uncertainties and Global events are causing rapid fluctuations in currency values for day Traders like Mrs Watanabe this volatility can be both a challenge and an opportunity and so as we close this chapter on Mrs watanabe's Journey we're left with a sense of admiration for this everyday housewife who dared to venture into the world of global finance and in doing so change the game forever thank you for watching foreign
- Ottieni link
- X
- Altre app
Commenti
Posta un commento